On October 26, 2012, CNN ran this piece about Obama struggling to reach white voters. They discussed he was hovering at 40% with them and needed 80% with minority voters to have a chance of holding on to win what, at the time, was being billed as the tightest presidential race in memory. We were even being warned the election may take several days to resolve if recounts were needed.
He fell short of those metrics, according to exit polls. He hit 39% with white voters, and 79% averaged across the major minority tracking groups. He actually lost by 1 point among college graduates.
He won the election 51-47%, carrying 332 Electoral votes. The election was called around 11:15 pm by most major news groups.
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You’re going to see a lot of ‘PANIC!’ pieces over the next week. They appear before the election like clockwork. Some will be there for clicks. Some will be there to hedge their bets. A few are even plants by campaigns, trying to scare their voters to the polls.
There’s plenty of them leaning into Red Wave polling, but Hopium Chronicles notes that the ones that have an actual track record put Harris in state level leads consistently. Early voting data returns are largely good, with the various metrics in PA, MI, and WI looking really promising. The stories about panicking democratic insiders not willing to put their names on their pronouncements of doom roll in, same as every election, while actual political operatives put their butts in the wind when they say Harris has got this.
I know some of us will be chugging antacid for the next week and change because of our trauma from the past two elections. Those feelings of anxiety are valid, and they’re unfortunately going to stick around for a bit. Please consider taking a break from reading news. I know I’m going to take a forced media break myself. I’ve got one more diary I want to do involving an interesting conversation with a conservative friend, but after that I’ll probably go quiet for awhile. Consider a website blocker to give yourself a break from the urge to doom scroll. If you can do some kind of activity to GOTV, give it a shot; you will feel less helpless. Most of all, spend time with friends, loved ones, and the things you enjoy, spend less time staring at headlines that, while scary, may not actually be true.